The free dollar sets another record and the one counted with liqui was traded at $236

Turn up the “blue” and widen the gap

The free dollar rises for the third consecutive round and records new nominal record prices. The “blue” wins this Thursday two pesos for sale, at $223, with an exchange gap of 112.6% with respect to the wholesale dollar.

As far as January, the free dollar earns 15 pesos or 7.2%, well above the inflation rate, which is expected to be close to 4% throughout the first month of the year.

The stock prices of the dollar also support the bullish tone. At 1:15 p.m., the “counted with liquidation” through Bonar 2030 (AL30C) it is agreed at $229.39, while through Global 2030 (GD30C) reached $233.65, after trading at a nominal maximum of 236 pesos at 12:50 p.m.. The MEP dollar with the AL30D is traded at 222.39 pesos.

In the interbank market, the dollar advances 15 cents, to 104.85 pesos.

“Argentina’s position is so critical in terms of reserves, exchange rate pressures and macroeconomic imbalances that if it does not adjust by the good or in the framework of an agreement with the IMF, it will adjust by the bad with a currency crisis and with more inflation”, said the economist Federico Furiase.

“Financial dollars are the dollar that is paid in the transaction and is the result of a supply and a demand,” Furiase added and estimated that “if we did not have ‘stocks’ the official dollar would be quite close to that financial dollar”.

The Government would be close to signing a principle of agreement with the Fund prior to the expiration of this Friday 28, since there would be an advance in the negotiation in the fiscal area. It is speculated that the maturities of the next few days could be refinanced within the framework of a new program.

But not confirmed yet whether Argentina will make the corresponding payments. Not paying the commitments with the IMF does not mean entering into default itself, although it will have consequences in the development of a stuck negotiation and also in the finances of the private sector.

Last Tuesday, the deputy managing director of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, affirmed that they were working very closely with the Argentine authorities to develop a program that is solid and credible and that addresses the imbalances that Argentina has. The Fund also raised to 3% the growth projection of the Argentine economy in 2022, in a world context of higher rates and inflation.

The Economist Gustavo Ber affirmed that “with a rhythm in the regulation of the crawling-peg that shows comings and goings, the focus is on the daily balance of interventions as a result of the current net reserve position liquid, hence the expectation – and urgency – that an agreement with the IMF arouses in the short term. The operator concerns continues to be reflected in financial and free dollar bull run, all converging towards $220, with a high ‘gap’ whose evolution will remain hostage to the understanding with the body in search of stabilizing the current ‘more pesos, less dollars’ dynamic”.

The Central Bank maintains a balance in favor of some USD 64 million for its interventions in the wholesale market so far in January. The Bookings Internationals decreased USD 80 million on Wednesday and ended up in the 38,872 million of dollars.

New placement of debt in pesos

The Ministry of Economy will carry out this Thursday the second debt tender in pesos of the year, in which it will try to capture some $240,000 million to refinance maturities. In addition, it is expected to close the month of January with a financial cushion so as not to have to issue currency at times of pressure on the exchange rate.

The Ministry of Finance will place: two short-term LELITEs (exclusive for Common Investment Funds), three LEDES maturing in May, June and July, one LECER in January 2023, and one BONCER in July 2024.


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