The two remaining months of summer will be accompanied, in addition to the high temperatures typical of the season, an overheating of prices in key areas for the pocket and that will have a transversal impact on all social sectors and, in particular, will be a challenge for the middle class, taking into account the upcoming adjustments.
The first increases already promise, very early, to put a persistent floor for inflation, which ended 2021 at 50.9% and that, according to private estimates, this year could be higher. The list of increases will also include the thawing of some values that were frozen by official decision, some of them key relative prices for the economy.
One that already has a number, although the complete details are not yet known, is that of the rate increases, which the Government kept under control with a minimal increase throughout 2021. It is a sensitive price for the official economic policy: the internal discussions in the Front of All about what the tariff policy should be have been going on for a long time and there are no signs that it is settled.
The first increases promise, very early, to put a persistent floor on inflation, which ended 2021 at 50.9% and, according to private estimates, this year could be even higher
For now, the first consensus reached in the government coalition was that this 2022 start with an estimated increase of 20% as a “base” for all users on their gas bills. It could, however, not be the only readjustment, since the intention of the official offices is to launch a segmentation system that allows, in any case, a much higher increase for certain households that do not require public services to be subsidized. The Executive Power has not yet revealed how this scheme will work.
Last week the first hearing took place to determine the final gas increase. The National Gas Regulatory Entity (Enargas) stated that it will seek a “definitive agreement” with the companies in the sector, while the distributors that operate in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA) presented their adjustment proposals that eventually would have an impact on the final rate of up to 35% for residential users.
The impact of a rate increase is not only explained by that increase in bills but also in what is known as “second round” increases, that is, those that take place in goods and services in particular due to the increases in the cost of producing them with more expensive energy.
On the same line, write The price of fuel, which has not changed since last May. The Government had postponed until March the update of the Tax on Liquid Fuels (ICL) and Carbon Dioxide (IDC). Both taxes, which affect directly the final prices of gasoline and diesel at the pumps, were to be applied as of December 1, were postponed. What’s more, Beyond the tax component, the stationers have been waiting for weeks for a general fuel increase, but this was not confirmed by YPF, the state majority company that always moves first and acts as a reference for the rest of the sector.
The first consensus reached in the government coalition was that this 2022 begin with an estimated increase of 20% as a “base” for all users on their gas bills.
Education will also have its own increase; It will begin to be noticed by those who pay for private management schools at the beginning of the school year. According to the schedule of increases established by the Buenos Aires government, those private schools with state subsidies will have an increase of 17% in March, a higher percentage than they had had in their quota last December, of 7 percent. In this way, they would complete a global increase of 50% since March of last year.
Although the prices of the fees are highly variable according to the type of school and the percentage of the subsidy that each institution receives from the State, for an average school, the fees —to which some complementary services are added— would exceed $11,636 for classrooms simple day garden at $13,614 monthly. In the case of a double day primary school, from $15,411 to $18,031. And for high school, from 17,288 to 20,227 pesos.
In the case of the province of Buenos Aires, private education had a rise of between 6.7% and 6.9% in the last month of 2021, while in March the update will be higher and would reach 11.8 percent. In Buenos Aires territory, in this way, the readjustment in the last year will have been less than that of the Federal Capital, around 40 percent.
private medicine already applied a 9% increase in January, the latest in a series of increases authorized by the national government last year. The adjustment came after the warning of the companies in the sector of the return of the collection of copays so that patients pay 9% of the value of each benefit, something that was finally suspended. Prepaid ones, anyway. warn that the situation of delayed prices still persists.
According to the schedule of increases established by the Buenos Aires government, those private schools that have a state subsidy will have an increase of 17 percent in March.
The rents will also have increases, depending on the date of signing the contract. As they do every month, they will follow the Lease Contracts Index published monthly by the Central Bank as a reference. By case, according to calculations by the City Housing Institute (IVC), the increase in the rental price of a home that must be updated on February 1 will be 51.28 percent.
The extended Care Prices program, which includes 1,321 products and was agreed at the beginning of the year between the Government and the mass consumption companies, will include a 2% monthly increase until April, when the scheme has a first review. The new list includes Grocery items, cleaning, bookstore, perfumery, personal care and hygiene, articles for babies, pets, fresh (dairy, cold cuts, fresh pasta, empanadas and cake tops), frozen and beverages, among others.
According to the first price signals at the beginning of the year, there is a sustained increase in prices. A survey by LCG specified that food prices rose 3% on average in the last 4 weeks and 2.9% point to point in the same period.