The staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already written its latest draft of the technical analysis carried out on the economic and financial consequences of the credit of 44,000 million dollars granted to the government of Mauricio Macri. This is a secret evaluation -for now- that Alberto Fernández brought to the surface at the close of the Argentine Industrial Union Conference (UIA) last night and whose dissemination is key to the Casa Rosada and its negotiation strategy with the IMF.
“We ask the IMF that before we close a new agreement, make its evaluation of what was the failed Stand-By program for which 44 billion dollars were disbursed that were misused in paying unsustainable debt and in financing exit of capitals. That will help us to understand each other. It is a necessary step on this path ”, stated the President before the UIA.
A few months ago, during an informal meeting of the IMF board, the Argentine case. And in this context, it was decided to make an evaluation of the economic and financial consequences of the credit that Macri obtained by political decision of Donald Trump.
Julie Kozack, deputy director in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, chose to this to a Norwegian-born staff technician to execute the board’s decision. That Norwegian coach – who was never assigned to Latin America – already has the last draft of the review requested by Alberto Fernández: there are almost 100 pages that will be reviewed before Christmas.
Consulted an IMF spokesperson, the exclusive information of Infobae:
“The Ex-Post Evaluation of Argentina’s 2018 Stand-By Agreement was conceived as a mechanism to draw lessons after an exceptional access agreement is completed. For countries where a new post-program is contemplated, it is desirable to complete the Ex-Post Evaluation before it is considered by the Board of Executive Directors. As such, we expect the Fund’s Executive Board to discuss the report in the coming weeks, ”the spokesperson wrote via WhatsApp when it was still early morning in Washington.
The report that the board will analyze before Christmas has no political considerations. Macri obtained a Stand-By credit for Trump’s decision, and that IMF was influenced by two senior officials who today hold key positions in DC: David Lipton and Mauricio Claver. Without them, plus pressure from the White House, $ 44 billion would never have been disbursed.
Lipton is now a key adviser to Yenet Yallen, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, while Claver holds the presidency of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The DC establishment looks out for its own, and not a single allusion to Lipton and Claver will be made in the technical report written at the direction of IMF staff.
Nevertheless, For the purposes of the negotiation strategy designed by Alberto Fernández, the Ex-Post evaluation of the Stand-By Agreement could serve the future. The head of state always stated that the IMF has to take charge of its possible political errors when granting the loan of 44,000 million dollars, and his report could endorse this working hypothesis.
“The dossier suggests that the IMF overreacted when it granted the loan to Macri. And I think that definition would be important for Argentina ”, commented a board member who has already read the evaluation written by the Norwegian technician.
Alberto Fernández and Martín Guzmán also knew about the content of the Ex-Post evaluation of the Stand-By Agreement, and in a conclave in Olivos they decided to use it to improve Argentina’s position in a key chapter of the negotiation.
From this perspective, the president evaluated the best political scenario and decided to move forward during the UIA annual conference. He was cautious and diplomatic: Before making his strategy public, he asked that they communicate to Washington his next step.
And so it happened. Alberto Fernández wrote his speech, demanded the technical evaluation and at the IMF they prepared to complete the institutional circle. Nobody wants political noise: neither in DC nor in Balcarce 50.