The good, the bad and the ugly in the economic and political of Pedro Castillo in his first 100 days of government

Pedro Castillo and his 100 days in the Government. REUTERS / Claudia Morales

By: Yuriko Cabeza | @ YurikoCabeza17

Pedro Castillo He served 100 days as president of Peru and the question of many Peruvians is: What have you done for our country in these almost three months?

Infobae Peru talked to him Dr. Guillermo Dulanto, professor at the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences of the University of Piura, who gave his opinion on the various events that have been setting the tone, especially in our economy such as: the rise in prices in the basic family basket, gas, gasoline, the dollar, among other factors that is affecting us Peruvians.

“This balance of 100 days is quite negative. The government’s behavior on the economic plane has not been the best. Prices began to rise due to political uncertainty, especially due to the exchange rate. All this has caused negative effects on various aspects of our economy ”, express.

“It has not been long to evaluate economic measures, the tax package that the Minister of Economy has proposed is still that, just a proposal. What we can say in economic terms is that the excessive intervention of aspects of political uncertainty has caused a distortion in economic activity that had been healthy balanced in recent years “he added.

INFLATION IN PERU

The first thing that is affected by an economic crisis is the inflammation in food prices, with the poorest and the middle class being affected. So politicians should know that to avoid this instability. The Reserve Bank it does everything possible to avoid the rise in prices, sets the anchor to remove people’s expectations and that there is no inflation by expectations.

However, it is politicians in general who begin to generate this uncertainty and it is there that speculators begin to appear. Much damage is caused by this political uncertainty that, ironically, the politicians themselves generate it.

The economic agents of Peru Due to the hyper-inflation that we had in the 90s they are very sensitive to expectations and if they believe that there will be populist measures or things that would take the country out of the picture a bit, they immediately begin to speculate either with products or with the dollar, which generates an elevation.

The diagnosis that politicians in general in Peru should make is to be more moderate because they know that you are speculating it will only bring ups and downs for those most in need.

Everyone must agree and not be changeable in what they report, that is exactly what generates uncertainty and with it the rise in prices.

We can even see the president himself say one thing and the next day another. So every politician should know that economic factors in our country are very sensitive to such statements and if they are good politicians they should take better measures of the case.

OPECU announces fuel hike in Lima.  (Photo: Andina)
OPECU announces fuel hike in Lima. (Photo: Andina)

FACING THIS POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, WHAT HAPPENS TO INVESTORS IN PERU?

Investors need to know that there is price stability to make medium and long-term projections. You can’t plan if you don’t know the exchange rate in a month.

In Peru, this has been taken care of in recent years, even in the pandemic, inflation in prices was avoided so that economic factors can invest.

Guillermo Dulanto maintains that economic activity works fundamentally by private investment. It is the private sector that makes and causes economic growth, it is not the state. They do not own the companies. When it has been seen that the State owns these companies, not only in Peru, in several countries, there is a decline and negativity in the economy.

The key factor for the economic growth of a country is private investment And this investment is also contracting, stagnating, if from politics we continue to make vague, ambiguous statements.

I recommend that politicians and the President of the Republic himself be more prudent so that economic stability is maintained and private companies continue to bet on the country.

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

From an economic point of view, how much would the nationalization of companies affect?

Faced with this situation, Dulanto comments that “what we want to do with this new Constitution is for the State to enter as a businessman and that, I reiterate, has already been a failure. They think that because entrepreneurs are greedy, they want the government to replace private investment. That would be worrying under this proposal, because there would no longer be promotion of private investment but rather the State would assume certain activities and we know from our own experience that Peru at the time of the 70 and 80 and they were all state-owned and that brought us many negative and positive things ”.

OPPORTUNITIES TO ADVANCE IN THE ECONOMIC SECTOR

The economics specialist assures us that we have a country rich in resources and that starting from that, it is already a great opportunity to improve our economy, which has been greatly affected in the last year.

“We are a very rich country in copper and to date only 30% of this mineral has been exploited. Currently the price of copper is very high and it will always rise in price using world needs. On that side, the mining resources should be unlocked “Dulanto said.

“We have an agro-industrial development, they have found a very important niche. We have a very rich sea that we can exploit and the tourism sector is a great ally to grow in our economy “added.

For everything I have mentioned only one thing is required: stability, both in the dollar, goods and services, promotion of private investment. To be a strong state and not a big one, with top-level officials who can regulate monopoly sectors such as telecommunications, sanitation.

These ministers are expected to understand how all this is going to be handled worldwide because the idea is to move forward and not go back to countries that are 30 or 40 years old.

WHAT CAN BE RESCUED FROM THESE 100 DAYS OF PEDRO CASTILLO?

To contrast this analysis of the first 100 days of Terrones Castle As president of Peru, we spoke with the political scientist José Carlos Requena, who offered us his appreciation from a political perspective.

“We are talking about a government that is just beginning. We can say that these weeks when Guido Bellido was at the head of the PCM was skirmishes, he showed that they did not have an articulating axis ”, accentuated.

“This axis is just beginning to form and we are going to see where it goes. We are still in a big question. I honestly did not expect a positive result from what we are currently seeing “added.

FILE PHOTO: Pedro Castillo, president of Peru, arrives for the 76th Session of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, U.S., September 21, 2021. John Minchillo/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Pedro Castillo, president of Peru, arrives for the 76th Session of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, U.S., September 21, 2021. John Minchillo/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

LACK OF EXPERIENCE

Requena also indicated that “more than playing a trick, it is a natural result of the antecedents with what came Pedro Castillo for president. These questions that Castillo is made are part of the liabilities that the president has chosen to keep close. I don’t see any gain in naming people like Íber Maravi, like Luis Barranzuela placeholder image or like Bellido, people who do not have such sensitive responsibilities as to manage a government ”.

He also criticized the appointment of people with the minimum of experience in sectors where the most suitable personnel is needed. “Unfortunately these people did not come with good integrity. You can have a radical thinking, but at least you are a person of integrity. That did not happen with the people who accompanied Castillo. The radical discourse is not the problem, the problem is the antecedents with each one of those who came to the Government and it was clearly counterproductive ”.

Regarding Vladimir Cerrón, the political scientist said that he was seen more during Guido Bellido’s administration, but in recent weeks his profile has lowered and, “clearly he is not among the positive resources with the eventual improvements.”

“There is nothing redeemable to get out of a management that received great accusations of corruption. There are many things to be clarified and that again there are outdated ideas of how to solve the problems of the country, “he said.

MIRTHA VÁSQUEZ

For José Carlos Requena the appointment of Mirtha Vasquez as president of the Council of Ministers “is a better option than Guido Bellido.”

“The idea was to bring another message to public management and that it is not at odds with these ethical issues that have always had to do with how Bellido handles his misogyny, how Barranzuela handles his indiscipline against the law or how Maravi handles these accusations of ties with The terrorism. They are clearly problematic things “.

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo greets former Prime Minister Guido Bellido in a file photo.  EFE / Stringer
Peruvian President Pedro Castillo greets former Prime Minister Guido Bellido in a file photo. EFE / Stringer

He also indicates that “it is not about being left or right, I think that on the left there are people who have a clean sheet that could contribute in another way to a government that will inevitably be left.”

Regarding the vote of confidence, he thinks that “Somehow the behavior of Barranzuela has won the way for Vásquez, I believe that now, we are better than 24 hours ago: There is a better position on the part of Congress and to provide the vote of confidence. From the beginning it was clear that Vásquez was inclined to do without Barranzuela, something that President Castillo did not like much “.

PRESIDENTIAL VACANCY

The figure of the presidential vacancy is always latent in governments where it clearly does not have a majority in the Congress of the Republic and that is what happened in the previous government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and in 2020 with Martín Vizcarra, but for Requena this This condition will be given as long as it is shown that the President of the Republic is acting immorally and without reacting adequately to a serious situation in our country.

“I do not think that a vacancy is due only to having the votes or that something mature falls, in fact I believe that the Congress until now has acted with certain prudence if compared to the previous ones, but the only capital that Castillo has is apparently his concern for the people, that he is close to the needs of the population, when he loses that he will become more vulnerable ”, he says.

OPPORTUNITIES THAT CASTLE HAS TO IMPROVE

For José Carlos Requena, one of the opportunities Castillo has to improve is economic activity and clear up all doubts in that sector. “He must be measured with his statements especially when the economic sector is affected or included and the same to do with his ministers who go against the economic activity required,” he said.

“There is something that you have not done so far and should do: have a long interview with a panel of journalists, because contact with the media is something that the president has not done and is questioned. I think that this democratic debate, this openness to criticism could bring him closer together “, ended.

KEEP READING

One Hundred Days of Pedro Castillo: “More than a government of communists, it is a government of beginners”
Pedro Castillo, 100 days of government and the danger of his lack of communication
Idel Vexler, the 100 days of Pedro Castillo and the worrying balance of education in Peru
100 days of Pedro Castillo and an economy based on improvisation, weak, chaotic and erratic leadership
100 days of Pedro Castillo: How much progress has been made in his government on health issues



Reference-www.infobae.com

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